Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Policies and the Lucas Critique

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 198, June 2022 (with Alberto Bisin)
  • Abstract
    We introduce a model of the diffusion of an epidemic with demographically heterogeneous agents interacting socially on a spatially structured network. Contagion-risk averse agents respond behaviorally to the diffusion of the infections by limiting their social interactions. Schools and workplaces also respond by allowing students and employees to attend and work remotely. The spatial structure induces local herd immunities along socio-demographic dimensions, which significantly affect the dynamics of infections. We study several non-pharmaceutical interventions; e.g., i) lockdown rules, which set thresholds on the spread of the infection for the closing and reopening of economic activities; ii) neighborhood lockdowns, leveraging granular (neighborhood-level) information to improve the effectiveness public health policies; iii) selective lockdowns, which restrict social interactions by location (in the network) and by the demographic characteristics of the agents. Substantiating a "Lucas critique" argument, we assess the cost of naive discretionary policies ignoring agents and firms’ behavioral responses.
  • CitationBibTeX
    Bisin, Alberto, and Andrea Moro. "Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Policies and the Lucas Critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 198, pp. 370-388, June 2022 
    @article{bisin-moro-lockdown-lucas-critique-2022,
    title = "Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Policies and the Lucas Critique",
    author = "Bisin, Alberto and Andrea Moro",
    year = "2022",
    month = " June",
    journal = "Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization",
    volume = "198",
    pages = "370-388",
    url = "http://andreamoro.net/assets/papers/LockdownLC.pdf"
}